Inflation the Economy's Code Blue

In ordinary parlance, when there is a lot of paper or “fiat” (Latin for “let it be”) money in circulation, prices go up and our dollars buy less. This is inflation. In two famous photographs of 1923, a German housewife burned “marks” in her kitchen stove because it was cheaper to burn money than to use them to buy firewood and a gentlemen pushed a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy a loaf of bread.

The U.S. government issued its first money in 1862. They were called greenbacks because of the peculiar green ink that distinguished them from gold certificates. Before greenbacks, banks used paper money called scrip. The dollar could be exchanged for fractions of its stated value.

Dollars were backed by gold and silver reserves and, until 1963, U.S. bills were called silver certificates.  Today dollars are called Federal Reserve notes and are backed by the economic integrity of the U.S. government. In 1971, the Nixon administration ended the backing of the U.S. dollar by gold and silver.

The oldest surviving paper money is the Kuan, issued in China by the Ming dynasty in 1368. Sweden printed the first European bank notes in 1661 and France had paper money in wide circulation in the 18^th century. The British issued promissory notes in place of paper money. Massachusetts soldiers received these promissory notes in 1690 after the siege of Quebec. There was not much to steal in order to pay the grunts.

The Federal Reserve keeps a count of the paper money in circulation by M1, M2, and M3 (money stock). M1 includes all money in spendable or liquid form: cash and money in checking accounts. M2 includes M1, savings, and short-term deposits such as CDs (certificates of deposit). M3 includes M1, M2, and the assets and liabilities of financial institutions such as long-term deposits.

In a strong economy, demand for currency goes up without any Federal Reserve intervention and the money in circulation goes up. In a weak economy, demand for currency goes down.

When the Fed (Federal Reserve System of banks) follows an easy money policy by increasing the money supply, the economy tends to grow, companies hire workers, consumer confidence grows, consumer spending grows, and the economy improves. It would stand to reason that our economy should have rebounded long time ago since the government and the Fed have been spending and printing money as fast as presses, or electronic transfers could go. Unfortunately, money has been going to Europe, the Middle East, and other overseas entities instead of boosting and creating new jobs in the U.S. The rest was squandered on TARP, bailing out GM and Chrysler to the benefit of Fiat and unions, bankrupt green energy companies, unions, Democrat re-election campaign coffers, United Nations, wars, and fomenting “democracy” in the Middle East.

When the Fed adopts a tight money policy to slow or combat inflation, the economy worsens, spending typically slows, and unemployment increases. As our economy has worsened, unemployment has climbed, inflation grew, but the Fed did not adopt a tight money policy and the government spending has not slowed down, while consumer spending has declined.

We seem to be in an unusual economic period, which defies the traditional economic experience of the past. The intensive care of the U.S. economy has revealed a comatose patient. New factory orders, new housing starts, durable goods, unemployment figures, M2 money supply, the S&P 500 stock index, and the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the federal funds rate are the predictors for our economy’s health. If you were an emergency doctor with the finger on the pulse of this American economy under the current administration and Congress, you would be calling code blue.

Consumer confidence and business confidence are also at an all time low, further proving that the U.S. economy, the comatose patient, needs a heart defibrillator. Small business owners are not hiring because they are worried about the liabilities imposed on them by the high record of new regulations passed last year and the Obamacare. The looming health care regulations, rationing, uncertainty of fees, penalties for non-compliance, taxes, and costs associated with such a massive bureaucratic undertaking with so many loopholes and exemptions has the potential to bankrupt or destroy many businesses.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cobbles CPI each month by recording prices of 80,000 goods and services deemed to reflect the expenditures of a typical urban American consumer: housing, clothing, transportation, health care, recreation, education, and others. Currently the CPI is reported at 3.16 percent. Curiously, food and gasoline are not included and Americans know that gasoline prices have more than doubled across the country since President Obama took office.  Food prices have also grown steadily.

The CPI uses a baseline year to compare the current inflation rate to, such as 1982-1984. CPI does not take into account the quality of things consumers buy (which affects price) or a consumer’s change in taste.

In a recession, the Fed creates money to make borrowing easier and keeps interest rates low. As things pick up, sellers sense rising demand for their products or services and begin to raise prices. The rule of 72 is a guide to assess the impact of inflation. Divide 72 by the reported annual inflation rate to find out how many years it will take for prices to double.

The people hit hardest by inflation are those living on fixed incomes such as retirees. Welfare recipients, Social Security recipients, union contract salaried employees, and government employees receive COLA (Cost Of Living Adjustment) remuneration and benefits.

If inflation is slow, it is called disinflation. Deflation is a widespread decline in the prices of goods and services. Deflation does not stimulate employment and production because a declining (contractionary) economy puts people out of work and they cannot afford to buy even at cheaper prices.

Runaway inflation, deflation, or defaults on loans, balance-trade-deficits, and bad economic policies are the sign of an economy and a country in turmoil. Traders manipulate various currencies by trading on the spot, forward, or swap contracts. Some traders have been banned in certain countries for their illegal and overt attempt to bankrupt their currency.

If you think inflation is a modern phenomenon, consider Diocletian’s edict of 301 A.D. to curb inflation. If anyone broke his list of regulations, the punishment was Death. The edict fixed prices for 1,000 items, such as food, raw materials, textiles, transportation, and wages.

When the previous emperor, Valerian, was captured by barbarians in 259 A.D., people all over the Roman Empire, expecting hard times, rushed to spend all their money on goods,  causing  1,000 percent inflation over 17 years.

Diocletian’s prices and income policy did not work but it did not stop him from diverting attention from his government’s shortcomings by putting the blame on speculators and rich people. Diocletian’s edict preamble blames “men who have nothing better to do than carve up for their own advantage the benefits sent by the gods…men who are themselves swimming in a wealth that would satisfy a whole people, who think only of their gain and their percentage.”

I believe that Diocletian’s preamble would please the Occupy Wall Streeters, the unions, people on government dole who pay no taxes, ACORN, the current administration, Hollywood sympathizers of Marxism, and the MSM. They pay constant lip service to “spreading the wealth” and “paying a fair share,” without specifying when that “fair share” is enough and why perfectly healthy citizens do not work and prefer to accept government handouts for their entire lives, from someone else’s stolen wealth. If I think about it, it is a form of reversed slavery, forcing those who work hard to support those who love sloth.