Tariffs, quotas, and other protectionist measures are connected to trade deficits. The trade deficit is the monetary difference between imports and exports of a specific country.
What is our trade
deficit which moves up and down constantly depending on the value of the
dollar, the state of the economy, government spending, savings, taxation, and
investment?
The data
available from 2018 show that the U.S exported $2.5 trillion in goods and
services and imported $3.121 trillion from other countries, thus our trade
deficit was $621 billion. One third of exports then involved services such as tourism,
intellectual property, and finance, and goods exported include aircraft,
medical equipment, refined petroleum, and agricultural goods. U.S. imported computers,
telecom equipment, apparel, electronic devices, autos, and crude oil. According
to CFR, the deficit in goods was $891 billion, higher than the total deficit
because “the goods deficit was offset by the surplus in services trade.” The
U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter? | Council on Foreign Relations
According to
the currently running Debt Clock, the U.S. trade deficit is approximately $1.271
trillion and the trade deficit with China is approximately $295 billion. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Tariffs and quotas have been used to
reduce trade deficits by discouraging imports and promoting domestic production
if a specific industry still existed in the U.S. and had not been moved
entirely to another country such as China, Canada, and Mexico in order to take advantage
of their cheap labor and the lack of environmental regulations. At that time, American
workers who lost their jobs to this type of globalism were forced to train
their replacements in foreign countries where the plants had been moved.
Keynesian
economists believe that the trade deficit could be shrunk if more economic
growth would take place abroad thus inducing foreign citizens to buy more
American goods. But some countries make it almost impossible for Americans to
export their products to the European Union, for example.
Two other
routes of balancing the trade deficit are also explored in Keynesian economics,
more saving or less investment. The U.S. personal savings rate
has been declining for decades; the savings decline recorded in 2006 as minus
one percent is the worst since the Great Depression in the 1930s. The rationale
behind savings increase is that, if Americans save more, U.S. will borrow less
from abroad. The dollar would become cheaper, and the trade deficit would
shrink. Tax incentives might encourage Americans to save more, but it has not
worked well.
Reducing
U.S. domestic investment in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has proven to
work only temporarily in the 2001 recession.
William J. Baumol
wrote that “if our trade deficit persists, we will have to borrow more from
foreign investors who, at some point, will start demanding higher interest
rates. At best, higher interest rates will lead to lower investment in the U.S.
At worst, interest rates will skyrocket, and we will experience a severe
recession.”
The third
remedy for our trade deficit is to limit imports by imposing tariffs, quotas,
and other protectionist measures. Keynesian economists believe that tariffs “superficially
save American jobs and conveniently shifts the blame for our trade problems
onto foreigners.” But other nations will retaliate with their own tariffs.
Protectionism can increase X-IM (exports-imports).
If Americans buy less imports, reducing the supply of dollars on the world
market, the value of the dollar will increase. But a rising dollar would hurt
U.S. exports and encourage more imports from other countries. Consumer behavior
will always change in the direction of buying what is cheapest for them, they
do not care whose economy they help or hurt.
Budget
deficits and trade deficits are linked by the fundamental equation,
X – IM = (S - I) – (G – T). [X
is exports, IM is imports, G is government spending, and T is taxation]. Following
this equation, the U.S. trade deficit must be reduced by a combination of lower
budget deficits, higher savings, and lower investment, all
variables that are difficult to coordinate.
American
consumers are not alone in their preferences for goods and services. Speaking
of trade deficit, “according to the historian Pliny, the demand of Rome’s elite
for silk, precious stones, pearls, and other luxuries from highly developed
empires in the east was so great that it drained Rome’s coffers of silver. One
hundred million Roman sesterces ended up in Arab, Indian, and Chinese pockets
annually.” (History Magazine, Ancient Rome, March 2025)