Are
Republicans the reason why students cannot get affordable student loans? Is the
federal government not in charge of the student loan program? Why is college tuition
so high, textbooks and tiny dorm rooms so expensive? Why do college graduates
have 25 percent unemployment under President Obama’s administration? What good
is the ability to get a low interest college loan if you cannot find a job when
you complete your degree?
Are
oil speculators the reason why we pay high gas prices at the pump? Has
President Obama not promised that under his watch energy prices will
necessarily skyrocket, coal plants go bankrupt, and gasoline will rise to $10 a
gallon, following the European model? Has Secretary of Energy Chu not stated,
they must find ways to push gas prices even higher than the current price?
Supply
and demand are crucial determinants of the price of oil. Other variables such
as a crisis and turmoil in the Middle East can cause real oil shortages or
increase the fear of shortages. That is why oil futures contracts were
invented, bought and sold by speculators.
Speculators
can estimate the demand for oil and plan accordingly. They can lose or gain money
based on too much demand and little supply or too much supply and little demand.
They buy futures contracts to smooth out unexpected price changes. They never
take delivery of gasoline; they hold contracts worth 42,000 gallons each.
Keynesian
economists agree that speculators sell protection from risk to other people and
smooth out price fluctuations by purchasing oil when it is abundant and cheap,
holding the contracts and reselling them when oil is scarce and expensive.
Speculators, in this economic view, “play an important role in alleviating and
even preventing shortages of oil.”
Independent
oil producers and OPEC, the best-organized cartel in the world, can increase or
decrease output. A cartel’s decision is always collusive and often
counterproductive to the goals of our economy. U.S. makes cartels illegal within
our borders, in the interest of the free market, but they are legal elsewhere.
Speculators
make money by betting on price moves, some willing to take the risk and some
willing to avoid it. The price of future contracts is influenced by political
events, economic news released by the government, and natural disasters.
The
government releases economic data, sells Treasury bills, or creates new
policies that influence the price of futures contracts for both natural (oil) and
financial commodities (derivatives).
Speculators
themselves can have a temporary influence on commodity prices by a sudden
demand for a contract either sparked by rumors, inside information, or other
factors that drive the price up or down. (Kenneth M. Morris and Virginia B.
Morris)
Speculators
operate in a “zero sum market.” For every person who makes a dollar, another
person loses a dollar. Speculators trade in order to make money, they are not
interested in acquiring oil or holding it, they purchase contracts. Speculators
gamble on price changes, they buy contracts when they think prices are low and
sell when they think prices are high.
According
to Kevin Freeman, oil-price manipulation by speculators on the futures market
in 2007 when oil was $50 per barrel to $150 per barrel in 2008 occurred without
a disruption in supply. Supply actually increased slightly. “Daily paper trades
at the New York Mercantile Exchange were seven times higher than the actual oil
used.” If you accounted for all other exchanges, Chicago, London, Dubai, other
markets, trades of oil speculators may have been 50 to 100 times that of oil
used. Producers and consumers had no change in production levels or consumption
patterns.
Dr.
Mark J. Perry, Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of
Michigan, said, “Market forces, not speculators, are the main determinants of
oil prices and all other commodity prices. “A large number of scientific
studies have failed to produce any credible evidence that high oil and gas
prices were caused by the presence of financial investors in oil futures
markets.”
“The
Obama administration is mistaken in attributing high oil and gas prices to the
presence of financial investors in oil futures markets.” (CNN editorial,
Professor Lutz Kilian)
Joseph
Kennedy (D-MA) argued that, because of speculators, “today’s oil prices of about
$100 a barrel have become disconnected from the costs of extraction, which
average $11 a barrel worldwide.” The fact that it is physically and
economically impossible to extract oil for $11 a barrel is lost on
Representative Kennedy. (John Hinderaker, Energy Policy)
Sen.
James Inhofe (R-OK) criticized the EPA’s “philosophy of enforcement” to
“crucify” and “make examples” of oil and gas companies like the “Romans
crucified random citizens in areas they conquered to ensure obedience.” EPA
engaged in smear campaigns against natural gas producers in Pennsylvania,
Texas, and Wyoming, claiming that the use of hydraulic fracturing caused water
contamination, without providing scientific proof. After threats of steep fines
and overt intimidation, the EPA backtracked, but the public’s perception of
danger and fear was already entrenched. (Craig Bannister)
Economic
fear, intimidation, threats, empty promises, and glaring misinformation are some
of the tools used to rally support for this administration’s failing policies
and to pander to its voting base. Are progressive Americans so dim, chanting
gleefully in a propaganda style reminiscent of communism, eager to vote for the
demise of their own freedom and economic independence? Are the taxpaying
residents of Realityville America hoping against all odds that they will
out-vote the mesmerized and satisfied welfare recipients who want more
communism?