Friday, November 17, 2023

Russia's Gas and Oil Pipelines

Each country is a "prisoner of its own geography," and that geography dictates what kind of resources it has. Whatever resources countries have, they are the most powerful weapons.

Russia's most powerful weapons right now are gas and oil, with nuclear missiles coming in second.
Why are gas and oil powerful weapons?
Because 25 percent of Europe's gas and oil supplies come from Russia. Latvia, Slovakia, Finland, and Estonia are 100 percent dependent on Russian gas; the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Lithuania are 80 percent dependent; Greece, Austria, and Hungary 60 percent. Half of Germany's gas supply comes from Russia.
Major pipelines run east to west out of Russia, some oil, some gas.
Via the Baltic Sea in the North there is the Nord Stream route (which the Ukrainians blew up this year) which connects with Germany.
Below that, cutting through Belarus, is the Yamal pipeline which connects to Poland and Germany.
In the South is the Blue Stream which takes gas to Turkey via the Black Sea.
There was a planned South Stream to go into Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Italy but it was scuttled because EU countries put pressure on these countries and Bulgaria pulled the plug by saying that the pipelines could not come across its territory.
Putin reached out to Turkey with a new proposal, the Turk Stream. The Turk Stream proposal would have circumvented Ukraine.
To prevent Kremlin from turning the gas off, Americans strategized and came up with a plan to liquefy natural gas (the gas that Americans will be banned from using in gas stoves and heating) and ship it to European coastlines where the LNG (liquefied natural gas) will be turned back into gas.
Europe has to build more LNG terminals; Poland and Lithuania are already building terminals and the Czech Republic is building pipelines connecting to those terminals.
The problem is that piped gas is cheaper than LNG gas.
Russia is responding by planning pipelines going southeast to China in hopes of selling gas to them.
In the case of oil, for each one dollar drop in the price of crude per barrel, Russia loses $2 billion in revenue and its economy can take a hit.
Another terrible issue Russia faces is demographics, population decline. Losing men in battle does not help the situation.
The average life expectancy for a Russian male is 65 and, excluding Crimea, there are now 144 million Russians even though its territory is so vast, stretching over 11 time zones. Of the 193 U.N. member states, Russia is in the bottom half in terms of average life span.
Most western states are experiencing a population decline as well.

(data from Prisoner of Geography by Tim Marshall, 2015)

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